Right now the majority of the tech world is focusing on the carefully-scripted events taking place at CES in Las Vegas, but personally I’ve found that event to be typically a bit underwhelming. The glitz is fun to watch, but in general the stuff that is shown there is stuff that I have already seen the basic technology behind or even, in some cases, been involved in the development. That sounds elitist, but it’s actually true for anybody that follows the underlying technologies upon which these devices are built.

Given that electronic toys depend on the capability of the underlying electronics, someone who really wants to see what the future is capable of holding should check out the latest version of the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS) report from the Semiconductor Industry Association. This report is a bit dryer than the typical press release, but it does lay out the expected and potential paths for semiconductors over the next decade and a half. Is it accurate? I don’t know. Personally, I never prognosticate further than five years into the future, because by then the random events tend to overwhelm the discernable trends, but the SIA is to be commended for collecting this amount of information and making it readily available. Warning: It’s not light reading. The Executive Summary alone is a hundred pages. What I have seen of it so far seems worth reading, though. This is highly recommended for those interested in the future of the industry.

Larry Mittag