Pumping Up the Bubble?
Wed, 11/09/2005 - 18:57
The Business
Bill Gates says the world is changing (again), so we had all better be ready. A report from Deloitte says that convergence is upon us, this time for real. EE Times reports that the number of “big� IPTV networks is expected to grow eightfold over the next four years (isn’t it fun to forecast growth multiples of small numbers?).
These breathless announcements are very reminiscent of the late 90’s, so much so that it is very tempting to mark them up to bubble nostalgia. One difference is that there really is communications bandwidth to support the claims, as opposed to the earlier time when companies were writing checks that their networks couldn’t cash.
It is certainly technically possible for each of these things to come to pass. Google is already building the network-centric applications that Microsoft is describing. Devices that can fulfill multiple duties can certainly be built. IPTV can exist even on today’s networks by trickling shows down to big hard drives rather than by streaming in real time, which killed earlier attempts along these lines.
The real question is whether people will buy this stuff. The advertising model that Microsoft describes depends on people accepting intrusions. The last time I tried to watch TV live (rather than through my DVR) I didn’t make it through the first massive commercial break. Converged devices will suffer from overcomplication unless they can build a single use paradigm on top of the multiple technologies. The perils of IPTV are summed up in the fact that there was an article in the Wall Street Journal entitled “How to Watch TV� that described how these technologies will work.
The enemy of all of these things is use complexity. Make them easy enough to use and people will try them. Make the learning curve too steep and they will go right back in the trash pile.
Larry Mittag
These breathless announcements are very reminiscent of the late 90’s, so much so that it is very tempting to mark them up to bubble nostalgia. One difference is that there really is communications bandwidth to support the claims, as opposed to the earlier time when companies were writing checks that their networks couldn’t cash.
It is certainly technically possible for each of these things to come to pass. Google is already building the network-centric applications that Microsoft is describing. Devices that can fulfill multiple duties can certainly be built. IPTV can exist even on today’s networks by trickling shows down to big hard drives rather than by streaming in real time, which killed earlier attempts along these lines.
The real question is whether people will buy this stuff. The advertising model that Microsoft describes depends on people accepting intrusions. The last time I tried to watch TV live (rather than through my DVR) I didn’t make it through the first massive commercial break. Converged devices will suffer from overcomplication unless they can build a single use paradigm on top of the multiple technologies. The perils of IPTV are summed up in the fact that there was an article in the Wall Street Journal entitled “How to Watch TV� that described how these technologies will work.
The enemy of all of these things is use complexity. Make them easy enough to use and people will try them. Make the learning curve too steep and they will go right back in the trash pile.
Larry Mittag
